the art of thinking clearly summary

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November 29th, 2020

How good is his success rate? of things to watch out for. The art of thinking clearly — Summary 15/02/2017 by Karl Niebuhr Learn how irrational our behavior is, and use that knowledge to make better decisions. ", We cannot know what makes us successful or happy. What has been cherry-picked here? Without it, humanity would be long extinct. Am I valuing this too highly because it is already mine? What are the facts and statistical distribution behind this story? Is some sort of authority figure exerting an influence on me? Is there a downside if the prediction is wrong? By “systematic,” I mean that these are not just occasional errors in judgment but rather routine mistakes, barriers to logic we stumble over time and again, repeating patterns through generations and through the centuries. Have I put us in a position to guard against negative Black Swans? “I lost so much money with this stock, I can’t sell it now,” they say. What counts is the stock’s future performance (and the future performance of alternative investments.). What other scenarios are possible? We have difficulty with absolute judgments. How do we know that one causes the other? Am I trying to reinterpret things to maintain a previous attitude or belief? What bluntly honest friends, or enemies, could I ask for an honest assessment of strengths and weaknesses? Hindsight bias makes us believe we are better predictors than we actually are, causing is to be arrogant about our knowledge and consequently to take too much risk. Science calls this phenomenon hyperbolic discounting. What are the limitations of this evidence? Am I avoiding an option out of fear or jealousy of someone or something outdoing me? Does this person (or do I) truly understand this situation?  Then I’ve also put together a list of questions one can use when making decisions to try and counter these biases. A result of our attraction to plausible stories.  What information did I have at the time? Is my behaviour different because I won this money or got something for free? The trouble is that, in many cases, we lack very lucid thoughts. Am I changing my behaviour or opinion because others are doing/acting/thinking this way? How do they likely affect the behaviour of those involved? Am I just trying to act here? Am I trying to shape this into a story? Will this lead to long-term or short-term happiness? Am I making an impulsive decision right now? The acquisition price should pay no role. What is my “line in the sand” if I’m bidding for something? Am I avoiding this because it’s unpleasant? Therefore, if you have nothing to say, say nothing. With the availability bias, we prefer the wrong information to no information. What specific things can I actually control in this situation? The fear of losing something motivates people more than the prospect of gaining of equal value. A single outlier has radically altered the picture, rendering the term “average” completely meaningless. If you love reading about psychology and human behavior, The Art of Thinking Clearly is the book you don’t want to miss. Can I find disconfirming evidence for my current hypothesis? There is a paragraph in it that is best summing up the book: Thinking is in itself not pure, but prone to error. Am I seeing a pattern where there isn’t one? Counter by spending time with people who think differently than you do. Note: This book covers 99 common cognitive errors we’re facing in everyday life which I didn’t include them all in my reading notes. After a while, it runs out and needs to be recharged. Verbal expression is the mirror of the mind. First, we have real knowledge. Have I gathered a number of sufficiently different perspectives to see how experts with different tools would solve this? Is this valuable information or just news. What is the next best alternative to this option? Because we didn’t need it before. Why is this? Or am I trying to transfer knowledge from one domain to another? Dobelli leans heavily on people like Kahneman, Taleb, and others to build this extensive list (99 items!) Where are the negative results? What is the expected value or risk? Disregard any costs to date. People behave differently in groups than when alone. In daily life, because triumph is made more visible than failure, we systematically overestimate our chances of succeeding. We seldom forget uncompleted tasks; they persist in our consciousness and do not let up, tugging at us like little children, until we give them our attention. And take advantage of positive Black Swans? Am I avoiding a decision out of fear of regret?

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